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You could be right, but I am not so sure.
In terms of percentage, the lib dems made a smaller gain than labour. I’d also suggest that while maybe some of those votes came from wavering labour voters, I expect that at least a similar number would have also come from the tories. I don’t think the lib dems split the vote any more than they normally do.
Reform, while not new, last time round they did not compete against the tories. This time, they did and the result is clear.
We are at war with the cat at number 23. We have always been at war with the cat at number 23.